A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
